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TITLE THE LABOR FORCE PROJECTION BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AND FIELDS OF STUDY:THAILAND (2000-2020)
AUTHOR CHATTIDA BOONTO
DEGREE MASTER OF ARTS PROGRAM IN POPULATION AND SOCIAL RESEARCH
FACULTY INSTITUTE FOR POPULATION AND SOCIAL RESEARCH
ADVISOR KUSOL SOONTHORNTHADA
CO-ADVISOR VARACHAI THONGTHAI
BOONKONG HUNCHANGSITH
 
ABSTRACT
This study aimed to review existing labor force projection models and to review and analyze the existing base population and to project the labor force based on educational attainment by levels of education and fields of study. The methodology to conduct the labor force projection applied the approach of The Methods of Projecting School Enrolment in Developing Countries (UNESCO, 1976) combined with the studies and technique of Methods to Project Enrolment by School Level and Population by Level of Education (Macura, 1989). Base populations consisted of two main components. The first component was a population by single years of age that was derived from the latest population projections prepared by the Office of National Education Commission. The second component was the number of students in the base year of projection (1999) classified by grade and fields of study. The data used in this study were secondary data derived from various publication of the Final Report on Education Statistics from 1999-2000 from Ministry of Education, Ministry of University Affairs and Office of National Education Commission. The labor force projection was undertaken with only one scenario. The assumption was that government had policies to improve the efficiency of the labor force by increasing the rate of students continuing to study at higher level through the direction of the National Education Act of 1999 and the National Education Development Plan. However, if the educational development plan was not covered by any part of the education projection the past trend of educational variables was employed. The study expected that the total number of graduates entering the labor force would be 908,618 in 2000 and decrease to 892,291 in 2001. After that, the number of new labor forces would be increase at the rate of approximately 1.3 percent annually during the rest of the projection period. In 2020 the number of new labor force would reach to 1,171,486. In 2000 the proportion of students entering the labor force would be highest at lower secondary level (24 %) and lowest at diploma level (16%). In 2020, the highest proportion would change to undergraduate level (33%) followed by diploma level and upper secondary level (24%). Primary level and below would be the lowest. Throughout the projection period the majority of diploma attainment would be from Business and Commerce (around 54-57%) followed by Industrial Technology (around 37-38%). In 2020, the number of graduates at Bachelor level in the science and technology field would be around 170,000 from 391,636 of all graduates. The proportion of science and technology graduates to Arts graduates would be 44:56. The implementation of the National Education Act of B.E. 2542 and continuing policy to increase the rate of enrolment can change the composition of the new labor force from basically educated to highly educated, however, this process will take a long time. Thus, these policies should be supplemented and supported continuously and efficiently.
KEYWORD LABOR FORCE PROJECTION
 
FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES. MAHIDOL UNIVERSITY. THAILAND
POWERED BY GITC.